Margulan Zhanay

Professor Creaney

English 110

09/13/2019

Robots will replace humans in many areas

Artificial intelligence is the number one enemy in the future. We all think enemies are those that make us pain. True, but not to the end. “Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer” (Godfather 2). All people see positive effects on our lives, but for how long? AI is waiting for its triumphant exit when it can develop much faster and more independently. This will be the moment when not AI will depend on a person, but a person on him. Already at the moment, robots are being introduced into our lives: Alexa, Siri, Alice. All of them have taken root in our daily affairs. What can I say, they will put a kettle in our house to heat, they will close the door, turn off the light bulb. If they show themselves now like this, then what will happen in 5 years? Will we soon have relationships with AI like in the movie “HER (2013)”?After reading the essay, you will understand what artificial intelligence is, what the consequences may be from it, and how people can survive on a par with them. 

If I ask you, who do you know in America, whose companies are related to artificial intelligence and generally to computer science? Well, probably you will answer Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, and of course, Elon Musk. In an interview with Joe Rogan, Elon Musk talks about his understanding of artificial intelligence and what awaits us soon. Elon Musk claims that AI will be outside of human control. Moreover,  it is going to be very tempting to use it as a weapon. Well, the warning of Elon is understandable. After all, the more you give power to a person, the more he becomes overconfident and believes that he can do anything. Besides, Elon mentioned that he went to Barack Obama and Congress on the account of artificial intelligence, that they are very dangerous, but they listened to him and did not change anything. If you listen to his words, he says: I was going on, I talked to everyone I could. Also, his facial expression is not the most pleased that tells us he was tired and gave up on this topic. The development of AI cannot be stopped. Furthermore, Elon Musk agreed with the words of the interviewer Joe Rogan that if people liked the new thing, then they will strive to buy it. This all leads to an incredible point where people tend to do something newer and better. AI is developing according to the same system, people want to do better and simplify an already simplified life. Quote by Elon Musk at a conference in Shanghai, China: “AI is more dangerous than nuclear warheads”. Why? Only the government of a country has atomic warheads, but artificial intelligence can be used by any person and knowledge is not needed here in order to send this weapon to someone. This interview very well coincides with my fears and is very easily transmitted to people who are not versed in technology. One is words, and the second is gesticulation, and I think that Ilon showed his gestures well in this interview, and perhaps by persuasion he was able to direct the whole people on the right track.

The article “The Realities and the Future of Work” makes predictions for the future and a lot of interesting facts about what kind of work we can think about soon. The article says about 6 disruptive technologies that were invented recently, and they divide into two: affect how we work, and affect how we work and how many jobs there will be.  Three things that influenced how we work are the Internet of things, big data and cloud computing (online memory store). Moreover, other things that influence how many jobs there will be are robotics, 3d printer and machine learning. The combination of all these things and a simplified view lead to one, artificial intelligence. In the article, alarmists predicted that 47% of jobs in the US would be considered obsolete due to technical changes. However, David Peetz (author) denied these predictions, saying that no one can predict how large unemployment will be for two reasons. Firstly,  it is not taking into account the cost of technology. For example, if the technologies are expensive, then it will be much more profitable for small businesses to hire people. Secondly, we do not know how many new jobs will emerge. Perhaps there will be work where you will need human qualities that are irreplaceable. If we talk about future work, then the Australian company has already identified 6 new works such as bigger big-data analysts, complex decision support analysts, remote-controlled vehicle operators, customer experience officers, personalized preventative and the last one, online chaperones. All these works will be in demand and experts advise looking at them as a new perspective. “Regardless of any exaggeration, artificial intelligence means that it is no longer just routine jobs that are threatened by new technology”(David Peetz). The bitter truth, people will not be able to earn extra money quickly, because now there is a more productive worker who does the work by 200%.

In the world of technology, we all know that the line between human and artificial is blurring fast. Google CEO Sundar Pichai demonstrated Google Assistant AI placing a scarily realistic phone call and having a ‘real’ conversation with a human being who had no idea they were speaking with an AI voice. The video showed how a Google assistant (on the left) makes an appointment with a hairdresser (on the right) via a phone call. What is most interesting, when a woman asked to wait a few seconds, artificial intelligence was able to respond with jargon “mm-hmm”, which tells us about a high understanding of current dialects. And now the question is, when will we approach the peak, when will we begin to depend on AI, what will they stop writing or doing things on your behalf. If today it is an understanding of the dialect, then maybe soon they will be able to change their voices and it will be impossible to determine whether you are or not? Taking the presentation of this product, I wanted to show what Elon Musk meant that AI is starting to accelerate in development and that it can already be used as a weapon against other people. Oddly enough, the audience in this video was amazed and applauded, but they do not understand the whole essence of this project. In Russian, there is such a saying: “The less you know the better you sleep.” People now live in such a principle and do not want to understand the upcoming issues. We need to find solutions to it.

Want to be surprised? Facebook’s artificial intelligence robots shut down after they start talking to each other in their created language. Facebook put two AI to test whether they could make a deal and trade hats, balls and books that were given a certain value. Initially, they were programmed to negotiate among themselves and improve their barter as they progressed. However, the company did not take into account that they can create simplified English that only they understand. Creating a simplified language in less than a minute, they terrified everyone present. However, Dhruv Batra, Facebook Artificial Intelligence researcher, said: “Like if I say ‘the’ five times, you interpret that to mean I want five copies of this item. This isn’t so different from the way communities of humans create shorthands.” Maybe there is no threat to the fact that they create a language, but they did it of their own free will. The principle of programming robots works so that the programmer writes actions that need to be done and can not be, but we can’t drive all the possible outcomes of events, but AI can. Now, people control them, but when they can’t, they don’t like it, but it will be too late. This event well emphasizes that artificial intelligence has its abilities and they are much more. Having shown this, I wanted to present to you that there are problems and they will be even greater. By convincing you that AI is the number 1 threat at the moment.

Thomas Frey in his article “Demystifying The Future. 101 Endangered Jobs by 2030” noted that time is changing and we should be prepared for the upcoming changes. He advised those who are determined to fight for survival and not remain unemployed so that they develop three skills – adaptability, flexibility, and resourcefulness. In his article, he writes the reason for the destruction and after which, what works will be endangered. For example, cars without a driver’s demand will begin to fall on drivers and then jobs such as drivers, delivery positions, public safety, and some other miscellaneous jobs. The second example, the same robots. They will select jobs from production workers. In the medical field, if human touch is not necessary to complete a task, it is fair to assume that it will be automated. A bunch of examples, such jobs as medical, retail, repair, agricultural and many others will suffer. In the end, Thomas Frey wondered if technology would become a net job destroyer or a net creator? One thing is clear that those jobs that are threatened with extinction, the workers must plow a lot and climb the high point of the career ladder, so that there are no more competitive machines. The main thing is self-improvement.

Blake Morgan’s article, “Robots will take our jobs and we need a plan: 4 scenarios for the future” emphasizes that it is impossible to stop the development of technology, thereby providing four possible options for displaced workers to survive. Firstly, re-train displaced workers. She explains that almost all jobs that are at a high risk of automation is process-driven. Moreover, she gives an example: if customer service employees will be displaced, they will be ready for how to overcome the problem and be productive. They could potentially re-skill to build on their existing skills and work in a different area. Secondly, move them to other jobs. “Displaced workers could fill gaps that currently exist elsewhere in the labor market – like elder care, teaching, and support for special needs children”(Bill Gates). That sounds possible, but payroll would be very small, especially if you live in a metropolis, you cannot even feed yourself with such a salary, not even considering your family. Thirdly, the technologies create new jobs for both the short and long term. Blake Morgan suggests that if robots replace displaced workers, they will still need people who have soft skills such as communication, creativity, and empathy. Finally, not everyone will work. Another idea is that workers who are displaced cannot be re-trained and cannot take more responsibility. Consequently, robots will work, and those who have been moved from work can engage in other activities. Unfortunately, I could not find the last fourth scientific source, which is why I took the usual article. My topic is more concise since I write about how it will affect us and searching the Internet, I hardly squeezed the maximum out of it. However, this article provides a lot of useful information for those who are looking to the future and are already considering two steps forward. Blake Morgan, a woman who easily and intelligibly conveys to her readers, showed simple and incomprehensible employees how to cope with this problem.

But what if this kind of problem does not await us? Andrew Arnold in his article “Why robots will not take over human jobs”, he says that you can not be afraid of unemployment and about everything else. Andrew mentions that when the first industrial revolution began, there were displaced workers, but at the same time, many new jobs appeared and employment rose to a high. Also, he divided his rebuttal to the account of robots into three parts. The first part is Concerns about a new robotic revolution. He says that we cannot calculate how many new jobs will appear and also can not say about the reduction of work. A Gartner Research study says that while 1.8 million jobs will be lost by 2020, 2.3 million new ones will be created. He gives an example that China has long been automated and, due to it, has become the main economic force in the global economy. Secondly, people create and people control. The author claims that if people created artificial intelligence, then they can control it. Continuing his thoughts, he says that we are not evil robots, they are here to provide a better world for all of us. Lastly, find your place in the world of robots. He encourages people to be adapted, read books, listen to podcasts, and strive for continuing education. Strengthening the topic, he gave an example that today very few people seek to mine a coal mine and produce coal for this and the creation of AI. Andrew Arnold says the right thing, but at some points, he cannot give a complete answer, because even in the example of an essay I gave a lot of evidence that people can analyze and find out which professions will be captured. Moreover, if you look from the point of the demography of China, the population here also influences, so this is not a fixed evidence of the economic growth of this country.

The book, written by Klaus Schwab, “Fourth Industrial Revolution”, describes changes in our lives, in our work, and even in communication. “The character of the changes uNdertaking is so fundamental that world history has not known similar era – time as great opportunities, as well as potential dangers”(Klaus Schwab). The author suggests developing four types of intelligence to survive in the 4th industriaL revolution. He compares them with the mind, heart, soul, and body. Contextual intelligence (mind). Understand the value of diverse networks. Networks erase barriers to foster productive partnerships. People’s decisions regarding the challenges of a new stage should be flexible and adaptive, constantly taking into account as many diverse interests and opinions as possible. Emotional intelligence (heart). The concept includes awareness, self-control, motivation, empathy and social skills. A weapon that will make you flexible in any changes. The intelligence of inspiration (soul). He feeds the impulse of creativity, moves humanity to a new collective consciousness. To develop this skill you need trust. In a word where nothing else is permanent, trust is paramount. Trust can be gained if these decision-makers are part of the community. Since the main thing that they do is all in the common interest. Physical intelligence (body). It nourishes and maintains personal health and well-being. Regular exercise positively affects feelings and thoughts, improves performance, and contributes to life success.  

We live in a non-stop era, so we must live up to it. We need to know what we are facing and must be prepared for trouble. Now you know the answers to the three questions: what is AI, what could be the consequences with it, and how can people not be squeezed out of their planet. You can overcome it and are not afraid of the future. To change people’s view of a problem, one must always start with oneself and be able to fulfill oneself, then people will stretch themselves.

Works Cited:

1. “Joe Rogan – Elon Musk on Artificial Intelligence” Youtube, uploaded by JRE Clips, 6 Sep. 2018,  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ra3fv8gl6NE
2. Peetz, David. “Realities and Future of Work”, ch. 4, pp. 83-112, 2019. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvq4c16w.9?Search=yes&resultItemClick=true&searchText=ai&searchText=taking&searchText=human&searchText=jobs&searchUri=%2Faction%2FdoBasicSearch%3FQuery%3Dai%2Btaking%2Bhuman%2Bjobs%26amp%3Bfilter%3D&ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_SYC-4222%2Ftest&refreqid=search%3A5894f597df3640990f30076e30a93d6f&seq=23#metadata_info_tab_contents 
3. “Google Duplex: A.I. Assistant Calls Local Businesses To Make Appointments” Youtube, uploaded by Jeffrey Grubb, 8 May, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5VN56jQMWM&t=179s
4. Griffin, Andrew. “Facebook’s artificial intelligence robots shut down after they start talking to each other in their created language.” Independent, 31 July. 2017, https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/facebook-artificial-intelligence-ai-chatbot-new-language-research-openai-google-a7869706.html
5. Frey, Thomas. “DEMYSTIFYING THE FUTURE: 101 Endangered Jobs”, JSTOR, Vol. 77, No. 9, May 2015, pp. 40-43, https://www-jstor-org.ccny-proxy1.libr.ccny.cuny.edu/stable/26330251?read-now=1&seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
6. Blake, Morgan. “Robots will take our jobs and we need a plan: 4 scenarios for the future”, 1st edition, Forbes, 5 Sep, 2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/blakemorgan/2018/09/05/robots-will-take-our-jobs-and-we-need-a-plan-4-scenarios-for-the-future/#5c16f2bc6db4
7. Arnold, Andrew. “Why Robots will not take over human jobs” Forbes, 27 Mar. 2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewarnold/2018/03/27/why-robots-will-not-take-over-human-jobs/#647418892fde
8. Schwab, Klaus. “4th industrial revolution”, 2016. https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Industrial-Revolution-Professor-Dr-Ing-ebook/dp/B01JEMROIU